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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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