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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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