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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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