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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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