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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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