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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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