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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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