We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
|
|
|
Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
