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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
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Sunday, 14 June 20
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Friday, 12 June 20
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Friday, 12 June 20
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Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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