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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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