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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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