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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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