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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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