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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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