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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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