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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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