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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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