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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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