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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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