We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
|
|
|
Showing 986 to 990 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
|
| |
| |
|
