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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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