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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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