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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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