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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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