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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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