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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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Showing 1031 to 1035 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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