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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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