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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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