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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
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