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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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