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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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