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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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