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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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