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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
Hit by disruptions due to a prolonged monsoon, mining major Coal India Ltd’s production in the current fiscal will not exceed 640 million ton ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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