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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
COAL-BASED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES 95% IN 2019 - PROFIT PAKISTAN TODAY
Coal-based power generation jumped 94.5 percent to 2,030 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in the year to November 2019, taking its share in the country’s ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
INDIA: COAL PRODUCTION FROM CAPTIVE MINES RAISES 24% OUTPUT IN APRIL TO DECEMBER - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first nine months of the ongoing financial year was up 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 40.93 million tonne (M ...
Wednesday, 22 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticip ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
IRON ORE - 5 THINGS TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie identifies five trends that will impact the iron ore industry.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decen ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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