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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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