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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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