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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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