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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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