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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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