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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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