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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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