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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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