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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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