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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
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Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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