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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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