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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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