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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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