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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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