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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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