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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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