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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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