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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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