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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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