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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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