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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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