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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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