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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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Showing 1451 to 1455 news of total 6871 |
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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