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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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