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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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