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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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