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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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