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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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