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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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