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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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