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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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