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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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