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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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