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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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