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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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