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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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