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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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