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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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