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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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