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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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