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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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Showing 1731 to 1735 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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