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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 20 February 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORT RISES BY 12 PER CENT TO 18 MILLION TONNES IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal import increased by 12.4 per cent to 18.49 million tonnes (MT) in January, against 16.
44 MT in the same month of the ...
Monday, 19 February 18
JOINT INSURANCE - WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is neither controversial nor new to say that co-assureds under a joint insurance policy cannot claim against each othe ...
Friday, 16 February 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DOWN 4.5 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 15 February 18
INDIA: THERMAL POWER PLANTS UNDER STRESS ON RISING COAL, FREIGHT COSTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal-based power plants are feeling the heat of spike in thermal grade coal prices and railway freight costs.
Prices of thermal grade coal sin ...
Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 o ...
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Showing 1801 to 1805 news of total 6871 |
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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