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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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