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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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