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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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