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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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Showing 1831 to 1835 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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