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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 December 17
SUPRAMAX: IN THE MOST CHANCE, DO NOT EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NEAR FUTURE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market reducing speed. Rates are dropping further for supras outbound USG on fronth, bkhaul is more stable i.e $25k/22k respectively say ...
Wednesday, 20 December 17
INDONESIAN HBA FELL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX MONTHS, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: HBA fell 0.80 per cent in December, marking the first fall for the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) since June 2017, the latest ...
Monday, 18 December 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2017 WERE 69 MMST; UP 68% M/M - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million sho ...
Thursday, 14 December 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL TO CHINA AROUND LOW $10K DELIVERY SINGAPORE
Supramax
Atlantic basin kept its firm pace with charters still busy with covering pre-holiday requirements. Ultras got close to $20k for ordinary ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
REFINED COAL HAS MADE UP NEARLY ONE-FIFTH OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION SO FAR IN 2017 - EIA
The U.S. power sector consumption of coal is increasingly shifting to refined coal, even as coal-fired electricity generation decreases. Use of ref ...
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Showing 1846 to 1850 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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