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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 December 17
SUPRAMAX: IN THE MOST CHANCE, DO NOT EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NEAR FUTURE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market reducing speed. Rates are dropping further for supras outbound USG on fronth, bkhaul is more stable i.e $25k/22k respectively say ...
Wednesday, 20 December 17
INDONESIAN HBA FELL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX MONTHS, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: HBA fell 0.80 per cent in December, marking the first fall for the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) since June 2017, the latest ...
Monday, 18 December 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2017 WERE 69 MMST; UP 68% M/M - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million sho ...
Thursday, 14 December 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL TO CHINA AROUND LOW $10K DELIVERY SINGAPORE
Supramax
Atlantic basin kept its firm pace with charters still busy with covering pre-holiday requirements. Ultras got close to $20k for ordinary ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
REFINED COAL HAS MADE UP NEARLY ONE-FIFTH OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION SO FAR IN 2017 - EIA
The U.S. power sector consumption of coal is increasingly shifting to refined coal, even as coal-fired electricity generation decreases. Use of ref ...
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Showing 1846 to 1850 news of total 6871 |
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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