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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 December 17
SUPRAMAX: IN THE MOST CHANCE, DO NOT EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE NEAR FUTURE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market reducing speed. Rates are dropping further for supras outbound USG on fronth, bkhaul is more stable i.e $25k/22k respectively say ...
Wednesday, 20 December 17
INDONESIAN HBA FELL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX MONTHS, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: HBA fell 0.80 per cent in December, marking the first fall for the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) since June 2017, the latest ...
Monday, 18 December 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2017 WERE 69 MMST; UP 68% M/M - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million sho ...
Thursday, 14 December 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL TO CHINA AROUND LOW $10K DELIVERY SINGAPORE
Supramax
Atlantic basin kept its firm pace with charters still busy with covering pre-holiday requirements. Ultras got close to $20k for ordinary ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
REFINED COAL HAS MADE UP NEARLY ONE-FIFTH OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION SO FAR IN 2017 - EIA
The U.S. power sector consumption of coal is increasingly shifting to refined coal, even as coal-fired electricity generation decreases. Use of ref ...
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Showing 1846 to 1850 news of total 6871 |
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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