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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 December 17
SUPRAMAX: CHINA TO INDIA FIXING AT MID US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
There has been quite some activity in the Atlantic basin this week, rates out of USG are still firm, trips to Emed gone through at low/m ...
Thursday, 07 December 17
THE ROLE OF COAL - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH - BENJAMIN SPORTON, WCA
At the climate talks in Bonn, a global alliance to phase out coal was launched. This, along with other rhetoric about developments in the energy se ...
Wednesday, 06 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS VASILEIOU
Moving towards the end of 2017, we are facing a relatively slack period of business in the ship repair sector. The repair market has already mature ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
DOES BITCOIN HAVE A FUTURE IN SHIPPING? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Google now receives more search requests for Bitcoin than for Kim Kardashian, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift combined. This week, a shipping compa ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The cu ...
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Showing 1856 to 1860 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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