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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 December 17
SUPRAMAX: CHINA TO INDIA FIXING AT MID US$ 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
There has been quite some activity in the Atlantic basin this week, rates out of USG are still firm, trips to Emed gone through at low/m ...
Thursday, 07 December 17
THE ROLE OF COAL - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH - BENJAMIN SPORTON, WCA
At the climate talks in Bonn, a global alliance to phase out coal was launched. This, along with other rhetoric about developments in the energy se ...
Wednesday, 06 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS VASILEIOU
Moving towards the end of 2017, we are facing a relatively slack period of business in the ship repair sector. The repair market has already mature ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
DOES BITCOIN HAVE A FUTURE IN SHIPPING? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Google now receives more search requests for Bitcoin than for Kim Kardashian, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift combined. This week, a shipping compa ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
OIL PRICES HAVE GAINED SOME TRACTION THESE PAST FEW DAYS ON TALKS OF ANOTHER OPEC & RUSSIA PRODUCTION CUT EXTENSION - GERRY LATHROP
Oil prices have gained some traction these past few days on talks of another OPEC (including non-OPEC Russia) production cut extension.
The cu ...
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Showing 1856 to 1860 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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